Hochul's Reign, Lawler's Flame?

Hochul’s Reign, Lawler’s Flame?

In a state long dominated by Democrats, a Republican candidate came closer to winning the Governor’s mansion than anyone had in two decades. Lee Zeldin’s 2022 campaign signaled a shift that could open the door for a Republican victory in 2026—and Mike Lawler could be the man to do it.

The last Republican to be elected Governor was in 2002, when George Pataki was elected to a third term.

That began to change two decades later. In the 2022 midterms, Republican gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin had the highest share of the vote for the Republicans since 2002, racking up an impressive 46.3% of the vote and cutting into democratic strongholds like NYC and flipping Staten Island. Democratic Incumbent Kathy Hochul won with 53.12% of the vote.

Just four years earlier, in the 2018 midterms, Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo easily won a third term in office, with a 59.55% to 36.16% victory over Republican challenger Marc Molinaro.

At the Presidential level in 2024, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris received 55.55% of the vote compared to President-Elect Trump’s 43.89%.

Why a 17 point rightward swing in just four years for the Governor’s race you might ask? What about the 11.47 point swing for President to the right in 2024, the largest of any state in the nation? We will examine some of the factors behind the voters’ decisions.

1) New York State Democratic Party mistakes: Being in power for consecutive decades does allow ample time for scandals to occur. On March 10, 2008, The New York Times reported that Eliot Spitzer had been implicated in a prostitution ring run by the Emperors Club VIP escort agency. Facing certain impeachment, Spitzer resigned as governor one week later on March 17. Former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo (son of former NY Gov. Mario Cuomo, 1981-1994) was implicated in sexual harassment scandals, which resulted in his resignation on August 23, 2023. Additionally, Mike Lawler had some words for Cuomo, at a Congressional Hearing regarding Cuomo’s allegations of deflating COVID-19 death numbers in New York, in September 2024. More recently, in 2023, Kathy Hochul’s administration was further marred by the resignation of Linda Sun, a top policy advisor, amid allegations of a conflict of interest involving her ties to the Chinese government. Sun’s resignation from the governor’s office brought renewed attention to ethical concerns within Hochul’s administration, adding to the growing frustration among voters over a string of scandals involving Democratic leadership in New York. Voters in New York are growing frustrated with a string of Democratic governors embroiled in scandals, and this discontent is showing up in the polls.

2) Crime: In his 2022 campaign, Lee Zeldin used strong and effective messaging on crime happening in New York State, in particular NYC. Zeldin campaigned hard on “law-and-order” and attacked progressive criminal justice reforms, including bail reforms, as a public safety threat. In what was a huge boost to his campaign, Zeldin was attacked on stage at a campaign event, which allowed him to amplify his crime messaging and continued to build momentum. Furthermore, Zeldin was able to dig in on crime related messaging as his attacker was released via the same bail reforms he was attacking on the campaign trail. This messaging resonated very well with suburban women, who had started to move away from Republicans since Donald Trump’s rise in 2016, who wanted safe communities and prioritized their children’s security.

3) High cost of living: Rent is sky high in NYC, one of the highest in any major U.S. city. Not to mention inflation concerns have only increased voters' stresses about the economy. NYC is the largest city by population in the U.S. Suburban workers and commuters who commute into NYC learned recently that Governor Hochul is implementing a $9 congestion pricing tax, going into effect January 2025. Mike Lawler immediately criticized the $9 congestion pricing tax decision, arguing that weak crime policies—like fare evasion—were the real financial burden on the city. Around 64% of the state's population lives in NYC and its surrounding suburbs. Mike Lawler currently represents New York’s 17th congressional district, which comprises suburban communities such as New City and Carmel.

4) Immigration concerns in NYC: The migrant crisis in NYC is a grave concern with voters. The surge in migrants has cost taxpayers nearly $12 billion since 2022. This is incredibly frustrating for voters as they additionally deal with higher cost of living and inflation. NYC Mayor Eric Adams has begun to break from national Democrats over the issue, stating his concerns with the large number of migrants rushed to his city.

Candidate Profile: The Congressman just turned 38 in September, and was born and raised in Suffern New York, which is included in NY-17. His further education after Suffern high school led him to Manhattan University, where he studied accounting and finance. You can watch his valedictorian speech here. Before his election in 2022 to Congress, Lawler was a New York State Representative from district 97, which encompasses the towns of Ramapo and Orangetown. Lawler is also pragmatic, often citing statistics about how he is one of the most bipartisan members of the House of Representatives, and his willingness to appeal to more voters by doing so. One example of his bipartisanship is H.R. 6090, his Antisemitism Awareness Act of 2023, which has several cosponsors from both parties. He also ensures his public presence is a positive one, hosting town halls in the district regularly. Representing a suburban district, he will have a core base of voters that will surely back him.

Given these reasons, there’s definitely an opportunity for Lawler to make a run for the Governor’s Mansion in 2026. The political environment is ripe for a figure like Lawler to take on an unpopular incumbent in Hochul, who has since announced her reelection campaign. A September 2024 Siena poll found Hochul’s favorability rating and approval ratings declining to new lows, with a 34%-54% favorability/disfavorable rating and a 39%-56% approval/disapproval rating. Hochul’s favorability numbers have been declining consistently since she took over as governor since Andrew Cuomo resigned in 2021. On the other hand, in his 2024 reelection campaign, Congressman Lawler staved off a challenge from former Democratic Representative Mondaire Jones, receiving a nice sophomore surge from voters, winning by around 24,000 votes and 6.4%, compared to just a squeaker in 2022, defeating Democratic Incumbent DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney by 1,820 votes and .6%. Additionally, Lawler was the only Republican in a swing district to win reelection in 2024, with the state party suffering defeats from Brandon Williams (NY-22), Anthony D'Esposito (NY-04), Marc Molinaro (NY-19), and New York Republicans lost a special election earlier in 2024 in NY-03, the seat of former representative George Santos, who was expelled as a member in the House of Representatives in December 2023. Lawler has proven he can adapt quickly to the political atmosphere in a swing district, while broadening his appeal to voters.

While there is no guarantee that the Congressman will try and make the jump to Governor, the 2026 midterms present New York Republicans the best opportunity since the 2002 election with Lawler on the ticket to reclaim the Governor’s mansion. At only age 38, Lalwer has a chance to make a big leap in his political career, and cement himself as a national figure with a victory. A Republican holding the governorship in NY would have huge benefits to the national party, and begin to turn the state into more of a weak Democratic state/purple state. It will not be easy however, as there will be several challenges, but if there is a Republican in New York that can overcome the state’s blue lean in 2026, that man is Mike Lawler. There are 716 days until the 2026 midterms, clock’s ticking.